Planting a Chinese Flag on the Moon
How China plans to take the next giant leap
We choose to go to the Moon, Kennedy said, not because it is easy, but because it is hard. Victory in the space race, he wanted to imply, would mark America as the greatest of nations, an unrivaled power on Earth and off. In that he was successful.
Eight years after Kennedy gave his famous speech, Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface of the Moon, the first man in history to do so. Even now, more than fifty years later, the feat remains unmatched. No other nation has ever been to the Moon, even if America has never been back either.
For how much longer will that remain true? Around the world space agencies are eyeing up our only natural satellite, plotting missions to send men and women to visit. Perhaps no nation is more serious about this goal than China, a rapidly rising power in space.
If national pride and prestige motivated America’s success, what can we say about China’s ambitions? That they are serious seems in no doubt. The nation has poured a lot of resources into its lunar program, an effort that has borne some fruit already.
In 2019 China achieved a rare first in space exploration, landing a probe on the far side of the Moon. In 2020 they landed another probe — and then picked up a sample of rocks from the surface and carried them back to Earth. The last time somebody did that was all the way back in 1976.
Now China wants to go further. CNSA — the Chinese national space agency — has been scouting around for partners for a while. Two weeks ago they signed up their first, Russia, and signaled ambitious plans to build a base on the Moon.
China is already planning a series of robotic missions — Chang’e 6, 7 and 8 — to the surface of the Moon over the next decade. Russia is getting back into the game by launching Luna 25, their first mission to the Moon in decades, in the next few months. Other missions may follow by 2030.
The agreement establishes coordination between these missions. The two nations will focus on exploring the lunar south pole, a region that China has already identified as a site for a future base. No new joint missions have yet been announced — those, if they come, will be scheduled for the 2030s.
China’s intent is to pave the way for a manned landing sometime around 2035. That, if achieved, will be a major event — a true show of strength. Unlike America’s first landing, however, China wants to stay. The plan calls for several missions over a decade, building up infrastructure that can support extended stays by the 2040s.
There’s a good chance China can achieve all this. The timescale is realistic, and unlike America, which tends to change its goals in space every four to eight years, China is likely to stay the course. A long-term sustained focus on the Moon will pay dividends for China’s space program.
This is not to say China will prove its superiority over America any time soon. Yes, a Chinese landing on the Moon will be a significant event, and perhaps a psychological blow to American prestige. But America landed on the Moon more than fifty years ago. By the time China gets there, in the 2030s, America may already have been back.
Under President Trump NASA launched the Artemis program, an attempt to return to the Moon by 2024. Though that goal looks unrealistic, NASA does have a good chance of landing astronauts before the end of the decade.
President Biden has expressed support for the program, and America already has rockets that could support the mission — SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy and NASA’s SLS are two prime contenders. The first test flight to Lunar orbit could take place before the end of 2021 — and almost certainly before the end of 2022.
By the time China lands on the Moon in the 2030s, NASA may already have sent several astronauts to the surface and even built a space station in orbit. SpaceX — who could probably already put an astronaut in orbit around the Moon — may be running frequent tourist flights deep into space. So much, then, for China’s superiority.
Instead China’s goals are probably more geopolitical in nature. Both China and America are seeking partners for their respective Moon programs. Eight nations, including Japan and the United Kingdom, signed up to the Artemis Accords in 2020. So far China has only Russia onboard, though Europe’s space agency, ESA, has expressed some interest in a partnership.
This is a battle with two objectives. The first, and most immediate goal, is to strengthen existing relationships on the ground. The Artemis Accords are notable for including Ukraine, a nation with no serious space program but with a good reason for seeking closer relations with America.
China’s agreement with Russia, by contrast, strengthens an existing effort to oppose American hegemony. Two other nations, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, are potential candidates for a future agreement. Both have strained relationships with America, and Turkey recently expressed an interest in a lunar space program.
In the longer term, China and America seem to be eyeing up space as a future geopolitical battlefield. By staking out partners and agreements already, both nations are hoping to set the rules for future presence in orbit and on the Moon. For now America surely has the advantage, though China is seeking to catch up fast.
Two papers recently came out looking at the idea of faster-than-light propulsion. The first, by Alcubierre et al, builds upon the author’s well-known previous ideas about warp drives. Gone are some of the biggest problems, including the need for huge amounts of “negative mass”. Unfortunately the ship would need to be placed inside a warp bubble, effectively isolating it from the rest of the universe.
The second paper, by Eric Lentz, approaches the question from a different direction. His solution also removes the need for negative mass, but still requires huge amounts of energy. The next steps, according to the author, are to find ways to reduce this energy demand to something feasible.
In any case, warp drive is to remain a hypothetical idea for the foreseeable future. While such papers can be interesting exercises in relativistic physics, they have little practical impact.
Bill Nelson is likely to be appointed as the new head of NASA. He replaces Jim Bridenstine, the administrator appointed by Donald Trump. Nelson is a former senator and astronaut, and has been a long time political champion of NASA in congress. His candidacy has been criticised by some, who see him as hostile to commercial partners such as SpaceX.
So much reporting around health, science and space exploration is unrealistic, hyperbolic and misleading. These are complicated topics, and there are often no easy or straight forward answers. Instead what is needed is analysis, discussion and an exploration of the possible ways forward.
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