America Is on the Verge of a Spaceflight Revolution
Five rocket launches over the next year will change the way we think about space
The history of American spaceflight traces a long arc. Undoubtedly the peak came in the Apollo years, when men walked on the Moon and NASA dreamed of visiting Venus and Mars. The decades that followed had their successes - the Shuttle, the International Space Station, Hubble - but nothing that could compare to the glory years.
Just ten years ago, as the Space Shuttle made its final flight, the descent of that arc seemed complete. For the first time in decades America had no ability to send astronauts into orbit. NASA was forced to turn to an old foe, Russia, to keep access to space. Mars seemed further away than ever.
Now things look different. The star of American spaceflight is rising again, triumphantly. New space telescopes will soon be in orbit, eclipsing the power of anything sent before. NASA plans to build another space station, this time around the Moon - and then to land astronauts there once again. And Mars, long so elusive, might finally be in the grasp of America’s entrepreneurs.
The handful of missions that launch over the next year or so will be revolutionary. They will not just change the path of American space exploration; they promise to change the way we think about space forever. Private astronauts will soon become routine. Men and women will walk on the Moon, and keep visiting - laying the foundations for Mars. And with Starship, SpaceX and America will have unrivalled access to a spacecraft capable of travelling across the Solar System. Things are about to get exciting.
Blue Origin’s First Astronauts
Jeff Bezos’ suborbital jaunt next month may seem like little more than the expensive joyride of a retired billionaire. In many ways it is. The rocket, New Shepard, was funded by Bezos’ enormous fortune from Amazon. The flight is conveniently timed to beat his two rivals - Richard Branson and Elon Musk - into space. To stop there, however, misses the deeper significance of the launch.
The flight of New Shepard will be one of the first private rockets to carry tourists into orbit. More importantly - because that has been done before - the flight will be the first of many. Blue Origin are selling tickets for trips into space to whoever has the funds to pay, meaning we are on the verge of real space tourism.
Other companies will join the game before long. Virgin Galactic, funded by Richard Branson, recently flew to the edge of space and promise to return before long. Axiom Space, a company with grand ambitions of building a private space station, has chartered several of SpaceX’s Dragon capsules to ferry tourists to the International Space Station. Space tourism, then, seems here to stay.
The James Webb Space Telescope
Three decades ago, when Hubble was launched, astronomers reacted with dismay. A fault in the telescope’s large mirror rendered it almost useless, leading many to fear its enormous price tag had been wasted. Fortunately a repair mission in 1994 fixed the issue, and Hubble has been returning stunning pictures back to Earth ever since.
When the James Webb Telescope - an even more powerful observatory - launches later this year, astronomers will not have the same opportunity to fix any mistakes. The telescope will be positioned a million miles from Earth, far enough to keep it extremely cold and ready for precise infrared astronomy.
James Webb will reveal a new view of the Universe, unlocking vistas of a little observed era of cosmic history. Back then, just a few hundred million years after the Big Bang, the first stars and galaxies were forming, lighting up the heavens for the first time. Just how that happened is somewhat mysterious - a question the James Webb should help answer.
Boeing Starliner
Just over a year ago, America had no vehicle capable of carrying astronauts into orbit. By the end of this year it may have two. The first, SpaceX’s Crew Dragon capsule, has flown several missions to the International Space Station, creating a credible and reliable means of human space flight.
The second, Boeing’s Starliner, has a more chequered story. At the end of 2019, Boeing and NASA launched a test flight of Starliner to the International Space Station. It never arrived. A software error onboard led the spacecraft to burn too much fuel too early, leaving it stuck in the wrong orbit. As a result the capsule was de-orbited, successfully touching down in New Mexico after just two days in space.
Before Starliner can carry astronauts, it will have to try again. A second test flight has been set for July 2021. If that succeeds, Starliner will be cleared for a human spaceflight - which should take place later this year. Should all go well, America will then have two human rated space vehicles, more than enough to ensure continuous access to space for decades to come.
Artemis I
Landing on the Moon has been seen for decades as a pinnacle of American achievement. No other nation has yet come close to doing anything similar, even though more than fifty years have passed since Neil Armstrong left that famous first footprint.
Though momentous, the Apollo missions were ultimately short-lived. NASA made a handful of voyages and landed just twelve men on the lunar surface. The powerful rockets that carried them there were decommissioned, and dreams of interplanetary flight were packed away with them.
Now, however, NASA wants to go back. Under direction of Trump, the agency drew up plans to reach the Moon by 2024. That goal, always ambitious, looks unlikely. But NASA is on track to land astronauts - men and women this time - by the end of the decade. What’s more, they seem likely to stay. NASA plans to build a space station around the Moon, and other agencies, from Europe to China, are sketching out ambitious lunar infrastructure plans.
This new age of lunar exploration kicks off in November with Artemis 1, a test flight for NASA’s mammoth new SLS rocket and Orion capsule. The mission will spend six days orbiting the Moon, before returning back to Earth. Artemis 2, scheduled for 2023, will carry four astronauts on a similar route, the first humans to venture beyond low Earth orbit in half a century.
Starship Orbital
Why think of the Moon when you can go to Mars? For one thing, Mars is a lot further away - reaching the Moon can be done in three days, getting to Mars takes six months at the best of times. That doesn’t seem to be deterring Elon Musk, who makes no secret of his ambition to die on Mars - just not on impact.
To get there he’ll need a big rocket - and it seems like he might be on the edge of getting one. His Starship, one of the most powerful rockets ever built, has been entertaining space fans over the past few months with a series of test flights and fiery explosions. Now he plans to put it in orbit for the first time, an audacious mission that could put the planets in his reach.
No date has yet been announced for the mission, but it will likely happen before the end of March next year. Starship will only just reach orbit, flying just seventy miles high. After just one trip around the globe it will attempt to land, touching down in the Pacific Ocean. If Musk succeeds it will be an epic achievement. If he fails - well, he can always try again.
So much reporting around health, science and space exploration is unrealistic, hyperbolic and misleading. These are complicated topics, and there are often no easy or straight forward answers. Instead what is needed is analysis, discussion and an exploration of the possible ways forward.
Follow me and subscribe to my free Substack newsletter to get the latest. Articles are published regularly, and by signing up you will never miss an update.